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This Week’s Top Story: ACES React.

The American Clean Energy and Security Bill passed the House last week by a paper-thin margin (219-212). Forty Democrats voted against — most saying it was too weak — and eight Republicans voted for it.

Here’s John Broder’s article for the New York Times.

The bill now heads to the US Senate where eventual passage is generally accepted, though how much weaker the bill becomes before arriving on Obama’s desk is still very much up in the air.

Here’s a smattering of opinions on the bill from around the world.

SolveClimate: Obama: House Climate Talks Were ‘Constructive’ Blueprint for Senate
“Obama said he expects “a series of tough negotiations.” Perhaps more telling, he described Rick Boucher’s strong-arming for the coal industry in the House as “constructive” and a blueprint for the Senate. (Boucher himself bragged that he ensured coal a long, bright future.). “

Reuters: China welcomes U.S. climate bill, says more needed
“China’s top climate change official said the bill was a positive break with the stance taken by the Administration of former President George W. Bush. “We think that we should give a positive evaluation to this bill,” he said. “But in the area of tackling climate change, especially on the issue of cutting emissions, if they could take some more positive, effective measures it would give a bigger impetus to the year-end talks.”

Reuters: Australian PM hails U.S. greenhouse bill passage
“”That is good news for the world,” Rudd told reporters. “And can I just say to those who are delaying action in the Australian parliament, look at what is happening in the United States.””

Climate Progress: The U.S. House of Representatives approves landmark (bipartisan!) climate bill, 219 – 212.
“This bill makes possible an international deal in Copenhagen this December — as well as a bilateral deal with China, hopefully sooner.  Had the bill failed, the chance of humanity avoiding catastrophic climate change would be all but eliminated. …  And for those who say this doesn’t do enough — I agree 100%.  But it [begins] a process and establishe[s] a framework that [can] be strengthened over time as the science warrant[s].”

DotEarth: The Specter of the ‘93 Energy Tax
“In an effort to blunt the momentum of the  energy and climate bill that  the House narrowly passed on Friday, Republicans are raising the specter of the failed effort by President Bill Clinton to craft an energy tax in 1993.”

NYTimes: Krugman: Betraying the Planet
“Indeed, if there was a defining moment in Friday’s debate, it was the declaration by Representative Paul Broun of Georgia that climate change is nothing but a “hoax” that has been “perpetrated out of the scientific community.” I’d call this a crazy conspiracy theory, but doing so would actually be unfair to crazy conspiracy theorists. After all, to believe that global warming is a hoax you have to believe in a vast cabal consisting of thousands of scientists — a cabal so powerful that it has managed to create false records on everything from global temperatures to Arctic sea ice. Yet Mr. Broun’s declaration was met with applause.”

Breakthrough Institute: Democratic Congressmen on ACES Climate Bill: “Doing nothing actually results in more renewable energy than approving ACES”
“Rep. Doggett is citing analysis by the EPA, which found that ACES would reduce the amount of renewable energy deployed in the United States relative to business-as-usual, increase the amount of coal-fired electricity generation relative to 2005 levels, and provide no incentive for a move to cleaner cars.”

Worldchanging: U.S. House Acknowledges Planetary Atmosphere!
“We need to be thinking about how to completely eliminate excess climate emissions from our economy. We need to set the stage for Copenhagen, and we need to get President Obama to take that stage and help make history. And then we still have to create a new model of sustainable prosperity and rebuild our entire material civilization to support it.”

AP: Kahn: Climate Bill Winners & Losers
“The sharply debated bill’s fate is unclear in the Senate. A major struggle is expected with 60 votes needed to overcome a certain Republican filibuster. How much it will affect other industries is still a matter of intense debate, though the primary winners and losers are already emerging.”

HuffPo: Stavins: National Climate Change Policy: A Quick Look Back at Waxman-Markey and the Road Ahead
“So, the Waxman?Markey bill has its share of flaws, but it represents a reasonable starting point for Senate deliberation on what can become a national climate policy that will place the United States where it ought to be -? in a position of international leadership to help develop a global climate agreement that is scientifically sound, economically rational, and politically acceptable to the key nations of the world.”

Finally this week:
Elizabeth Kolbert profiles NASA’s Jim Hansen in June 29, 2009 issue of the New Yorker, Hansen pretty much invented climate science and climate modeling. He’s a cap-and-trade opponent, favoring a straight carbon tax. He doesn’t comment directly on ACES in the article, but he does say, “I had high opes that Obama understood the reality of the issue and would seize the opportunity to marry the energy and climate and national-security issues and make a very strong program … Maybe he still will, but I’m getting a bad feeling.”

Other stories of note:

NYTimes: Algae Farm Aims to Turn Carbon Dioxide Into Fuel
“The ethanol would be sold as fuel, the companies said, but Dow’s long-term interest is in using it as an ingredient for plastics, replacing natural gas. The process also produces oxygen, which could be used to burn coal in a power plant cleanly. … The exhaust from such a plant would be mostly carbon dioxide, which could be reused to make more algae.”

BBC: China ‘to block’ Hummer takeover
“A Chinese firm’s bid to buy the gas-guzzling Hummer car brand will be blocked on environmental grounds, according to Chinese state radio.”

New Scientist: Ozone hole has unforeseen effect on ocean carbon sink
“The Southern Ocean is a major carbon sink, guzzling around 15 per cent of CO2 emissions. However, between 1987 and 2004, carbon uptake in the region was reduced by nearly 2.5 billion tonnes – equivalent to the amount of carbon that all the world’s oceans absorb in one year.”

Reuters: Scotland agrees to world’s toughest 2020 climate goal
“Scottish lawmakers Wednesday backed a binding goal to cut greenhouse gases by 42 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, edging Germany into second place in a ranking of the most ambitious developed world targets.”

Reuters: Swiss glaciers melting faster than ever before: study
“”The last decade was the worst decade that we have had in the last 150 years. We lost a lot of water,” said Daniel Farinotti, research assistant at the ETH.”

Earth2Tech: Is China On the Cusp of Becoming a Huge Solar Panel Market?
“On top of all this, the country has what Polly Shaw of Suntech Power, called the “most aggressive” renewable portfolio standard in the world. It aims to get 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, with some 100 gigawatts of wind capacity and 1.8 gigawatts of solar. The country is already rethinking its solar target, and will “probably” revise it to 10 or even 20 gigawatts this year, Shaw said.”

NYTimes: Sears Tower to Be Revamped to Produce Most of Its Own Power
“The plan, to begin immediately, aims to reduce electricity use in the tower by 80 percent over five years through upgrades in the glass exterior, internal lighting, heating, cooling and elevator systems — and its own green power generation.”

This week’s top story: COP-15 Roundup

The best sum-up of the recent “Road to Copenhagen” meeting in Bonn, Germany comes from Nature News:

Not much got done, but nobody really expected anything important to happen. The negotiating text ballooned as parties sought to insert and clarify countless disagreements and positions, but that’s the way it always works. Nobody gave an inch on their negotiating positions, but what kind of self-respecting negotiator would reveal the bottom line at this stage in the game?

As is often the case, the biggest deals are likely to be struck at the last minute.

In the weeks since, there has been movement — some of it forward, some side-to-side — and some major handwringing.

At this week’s US-led Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in Mexico City, US Climate Negotiator Todd Stern said that the 40% cuts in green house gas emissions by 2020 that developing (non-Annex 1) nations are calling for — most notably, China — are neither politically feasible nor necessary. Meanwhile, the medium term goal — 80% reductions by 2050 — are being favorably considered.

There was also wide discussion on the creation of a “Green Bank,” perhaps to be administered by the World Bank, that would govern developing-world carbon projects and sponsor global technology transfer.

AP: US nixes 40 percent cuts at climate change talks
Canadian Press: EU postpones decision on climate change funding for poor nations until October

Meanwhile, governments and other regional entities are beginning to make noises about contingency — what if the world fails to make a deal at Copenhagen? The Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate — which started as a Bush 2 end around the UNFCCC — may end up playing a significant role.

Reuters: Nations may form global CO2 market without U.N. deal
Reuters: Major economies consider halving world CO2

Other stories of note:

Reuters: Slim, Tata, others advise U.N.’s Ban on climate
“U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has formed an advisory group on climate change that includes Mexico’s Carlos Slim, India’s Ratan Tata, other business tycoons and executives from nongovernmental organizations, one member of the group said.”

WSJ: Veggie Power: Plant-based Jet Fuel Outperforms Oil-based Jet Fuel
“Boeing says the blends didn’t damage the equipment, and actually proved to have more oomph, or “greater energy content” than standard jet fuel – meaning potentially better fuel economy. The greenhouse gas benefit was evident as well: a blend that included jatropha and camelina can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 65% to 80% from standard petroleum-based fuel.”

Reuters: Arctic nations say no Cold War; military stirs
“Arctic nations are promising to avoid new “Cold War” scrambles linked to climate change, but military activity is stirring in a polar region where a thaw may allow oil and gas exploration or new shipping routes. “

Guardian: Here is the weather for 2080: floods, droughts and heat waves
“And now for the weather. The 2020s are looking warm and dry, with occasional heavy winter showers. The 2050s should be sunny and warm, with scattered deaths due to heatwaves across London and the south-east. And looking ahead to the 2080s, temperatures could reach 41C, so be sure to pack the suncream for your picnic. And watch out for those great white sharks!”

AP: Water supplies at risk from fires in dead forests
“Water supplies for 33 million people could be endangered if millions of acres of beetle-ravaged forests in the Rocky Mountains catch fire, a U.S. Forest Service official said Tuesday.”

WSJ: The Climate Change Climate Change
“Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. … The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.”

Riverside Press-Enterprise: Desert icon Joshua trees are vanishing, scientists say
“The ancient plants are dying in the park, the southern-most boundary of their limited growing region, scientists say. … Experts expect the Joshuas to vanish entirely from the southern half of the state within a century.”

Yes this is late. I got sick and busy. What can I say, you get what you pay for.

Top story: China’s got a brand new bag

China has up until recently been a mystery on climate and energy.

China is officially a “non-Annex 1 country”, as defined by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which means it’s “developing” and not historically responsible for the build-up of green house gases in our atmosphere.

That said, however, China’s economic boom of the last 20 years has catapulted it to the top of current green house gas emitters, though it’s worth noting that in terms of per capita emissions and energy use, China is still far below the US, Canada and most of Western Europe.

Because it’s a non-Annex 1 country, the Kyoto Accord did not apply to China. But the new treaty being worked on in anticipation of the Copenhagen summit in December is designed to include all countries big and small, developed and developing.

Before the recent round of negotiations started last year, not much was known about China’s position on climate change and emission-policy. The stance by the government seemed to be “economic growth at all cost,” and the central government was very harsh on emissions caps and any other policies that would limit growth.

That view has changed by a few degrees.

First, China is a short-, medium- and long-term climate change “loser.” All 15 climate models (including China’s own) show the expansion of the globe’s subtropical deserts, which would directly threaten China’s ability to feed itself, already not taken for granted. Most climate models also show the intermittent-to-permanent failure of the northwest monsoon, which would affect both short- and long-term fresh water supplies through all of Southern and SE Asia. Finally, the melting Himalayan glaciers are already causing disastrous floods in large swaths of central China. These floods will continue until the glaciers are gone, which will usher in a long, extremely dry period throughout the entire region.

Geopolitical analysts see the Chinese-Russian border is a potential hotspot 50 to 75 years down the road: the boundary is still disputed in many areas and if Siberia becomes a new breadbasket while many millions of Chinese become food and water refugees, the potential for conflict, even nuclear, seems high.

Until recently, we did not even know if China was aware of its fate. Turns out, the leaders there know exactly what’s going on.

In recent diplomatic forums, including the Bonn meetings earlier this month and the bilateral US-China discussions that ended last week, China is still drawing a very hard line on emissions reductions for Annex 1 countries — demanding 40% from 1990 levels — and, without that, refusing to commit to any hard targets for its own emissions.

However, China is already committing billions of dollars toward transforming its economy and energy infrastructure in a way the dwarfs what’s happening here in the US and in most other Annex 1 nations. Only Germany is investing more.

China is also developing the industrial infrastructure to build the world’s new green machines. The country’s begun a top-down economic initiative to build electric bicycles and cars — skipping ahead of traditional and hybrid models. Chinese companies have signed deals with American energy companies to provide wind turbines; American and British manufacturers are complaining the Chinese are keeping foreign competition out of their developing infrastructure. It’s not yet clear if this is the “World War 2 size effort” that many say is needed to prevent catastrophe, but it is a much more clear step in that direction than exists anywhere else in the world.

Given these mixed messages, what is the path to Copenhagen? Obama (and the world) knows that any agreement is impossible without China and US lead climate negotiator Todd Stern is still optimistic. However, after little movement during the last set of meetings in Beijing, how the two countries move forward is still a mystery.

Further reading:

Center for American Progress: China Begins Its Transition to a Clean-Energy Economy China’s Climate Progress by the Numbers

Time: On the Streets of China, Electric Bikes Are Swarming

Economist: Heating up or cooling down?

AFP: US expects China to cut emissions after a ‘peak year’

CNN: Pachauri: Stern stance on China climate talks ‘pragmatic’

New Scientist: Silk Road threatened by melting glaciers

Other stories of interest:

LATimes: A ‘time bomb’ for world wheat crop (Ed: And it’s NOT climate change!)
“Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads from eastern Africa. It has already jumped the Red Sea and … is poised to enter the breadbasket of northern India and Pakistan. … “It’s a time bomb,” said Jim Peterson, a professor of wheat breeding and genetics at Oregon State University in Corvallis. “It moves in the air, it can move in clothing on an airplane. We know it’s going to be here. It’s a matter of how long it’s going to take.””

Wired: High-Altitude Wind Machines Could Power New York City
“The first rigorous, worldwide study of high-altitude wind power estimates that there is enough wind energy at altitudes of about 1,600 to 40,000 feet to meet global electricity demand a hundred times over. … Even better, the best high-altitude wind-power resources match up with highly populated areas including North America’s Eastern Seaboard and China’s coastline.”

NYT: Making the Case for Climate as a Migration Driver
“The study … combined climatological and demographic data with field interviews of migrants already on the move. The aim was to provide an overview, with rich maps and an oft-lacking dose of empiricism, of where the changing environment is driving decision-making on the ground and which areas are likely to be hit hardest if things get worse.”

AP: Russia to bolster presence in energy-rich Arctic
“Russia will rebuild its Soviet-era network of polar stations and use its icebreaker fleet to help support its claim to the vast resources of the Arctic, the man who led a mission to plant a Russian flag on the Arctic seabed said Wednesday.”

Reuters: U.S. startup turning human waste into fuel
“EnerTech Environmental, an Atlanta startup, on Thursday unveiled the United States’ first commercial biosolids-to-energy facility in California’s Inland Empire. “Biosolids” is the nice term for processed sewage sludge. The product customers buy is 95 percent solid and interchangeable with coal, according to Chief Executive Kevin Bolin, whose grandfather invented the company’s patented “SlurryCarb” technology.”

Reuters: Climate change blamed for Caribbean coral deaths
“The analysis of 500 surveys of 200 reefs, conducted between 1969 and 2008, showed the most complex types of reef had been virtually wiped out across the entire Caribbean.”

It was raining last Saturday, so we’re going to make up the park party THIS Saturday. I hope you can make it!

Come welcome warm summer days with friends, family, great music and you.

Chill out in the wilds of Elysian Park while contemplating the summer solstice and enjoying hi-quality music by non-DJ DJs. Bring a picnic, good vibes and your dancing shoes.

Bring your own records and/or ipod and play us a set (vinyl and computers, ok).

Special Guest non-DJ DJs:

Alexandro Segade: make a spectacle of yourself
Francesca Lia Block: dangerous angels
Rafi Benjamin: dubbed out madness
Rico Gagliano: dinner party download
Viktor Phoenix: The Viktor Phoenix Magic Show and Drunk Tank
plus, Special Guest
and, YOU?!

We’re starting early and ending around dinner time, so come spend a great afternoon in the park! Spread the word and bring your friends.

Good times!

Here’s the location (google maps):
http://tinyurl.com/saturdaysinthepark

Joe Richman from Radio Diaries sent an email out to his list today.

Friends of Radio Diaries,

Some of you may have already heard the sad news that our friend and diarist Thembi Ngubane died a few days ago.

I’ve had a hard time finding the right words for this moment.

Thembi thought about death almost every day. Yet she was the most alive person I’ve ever met. She sometimes asked me why I chose her to do an audio diary about her life. But I feel like she chose me.

Thembi had been struggling off and on with TB. A week ago she learned that she had multi-drug resistant TB. She died Thursday night in the hospital. She was 24.

Thembi gave me, and many of us, a lesson in courage and in embracing the craziness of life – good and bad. She was brave and open about living with AIDS at a time when most South Africans were quiet about the epidemic. She thought the virus should be scared of her, rather than the other way around. She drew pictures of her virus. She talked to it in the mirror. She gave it orders.

Thembi had a short life. But it was a full one by any measure. She had a child. She found a soul mate in her longtime boyfriend, Melikhaya. Her story was heard by millions of people in a dozen countries and five languages. On her tour of the United States, she met Bill Clinton and then-Senator Barak Obama. She traveled to Germany and India as a Unicef ambassador. She was a contestant in an African reality TV show. In South Africa, she became a role model for young people living with HIV. She experienced the hard edges of life in ways that I still find hard to fathom.

But there are a few poignant moments that will never make it into her obituary.

I remember a high school outside of Durban where Thembi was speaking. It was radical for someone – a young person especially – to stand up in front of a crowd and say, “I have AIDS”. When she finished speaking, the students crowded around her, wanting an autograph. With no paper in sight, arms and legs were thrust forward and Thembi signed each one with her pen.

I remember when Thembi was invited to address the South African Parliament. “Accept that AIDS is here,” she told the country’s leaders. But life is a mix of cosmic and mundane. The next day, Thembi was back to her normal life: standing in line at the clinic for antiretroviral drugs, caring for her baby, and hoping for a job.

By now, we are all so familiar with the statistics. More than 5000 people die every day from AIDS. Somehow, it never seemed Thembi would be one of them. Thembi embodied great ambition to be heard and seen. She thought it was important to speak out against stigma and discrimination. But she was also motivated by fear: she didn’t want to be anonymous… or forgotten.

Thembi we heard you.

And we miss you.

Joe Richman
Radio Diaries

We put together a remembrance that aired on NPR. You can listen on our website: http://www.radiodiaries.org

“Seeing people who were losing hope, who were on the death road, made me realize that there is no time to waste. People needed to be aware. I felt like maybe some of the way AIDS has been portrayed hasn’t helped them. Maybe people don’t feel the messages, maybe they don’t hear them. Maybe people
need someone they can relate to, someone who is just like them, to spell it out to them. I felt like I owed it to everyone to just be heard.”

- Thembi Ngubane

We will be remembering and honoring Thembi’s life at her funeral in South Africa this Saturday.

If you would like to make a contribution in her honor, please consider a donation to:

The Treatment Action Campaign in South Africa. They have been tireless advocates for treatment for all and Thembi was a member.

Doctors Without Borders/MSF. They launched a pilot program in 2004 to distribute Anti-Retroviral drugs (ARVs) in Thembi’s township, Khayelitshia. The program directly impacted Thembi’s life. Through MSF, Thembi was able to get the right treatment at a time when the South African government was doing very little.

Thembi leaves behind her four-year old daughter, Onwabo. Many of you contributed in the past to Thembi’s family, helping them to purchase their own house in the township. Radio Diaries is setting up a fund to help with the continuing care of Onwabo. To contribute, please follow this link:
Thembi’s AIDS Diary Fund.

Photographs by Thembi’s boyfriend, Melikhaya Mpumela.

I didn’t link to updates on what’s happening in Bonn, Germany this week in yesterday’s post. A lot of what goes on at these meetings isn’t really clear until far after the ink dries. Nevertheless, I’m not real sure what to make of Yvo de Boer’s interview with Deutsche Welle yesterday. de Boer is head of the IPCC and moderator of the UNFCCC talks.

The proposals from representatives of more than 30 of the world’s richest nations meeting in the former West German capital amount to a reduction in the range of 17 percent to 26 percent of 1990 levels by 2020.

“This is not enough to address climate change,” de Boer said. …

Scientists have urged diplomats to adopt policies that would limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century, saying any more might prove disastrous for life on earth. At the start of the Bonn talks, de Boer said he was confident that the Copenhagen meeting would succeed, although “there are some tough nuts to crack.”

“Tough nuts!” Haha.