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Top Story: UNFCCC “Road to Copenhagen” meeting this week in Bonn, Germany (June 1-12, 2009)

Major talks start this week in Bonn, Germany on the “Road to Copenhagen,” — the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meetings leading up to the global summit in Copenhagen, Denmark December 7-18, 2009.

Copenhagen is where world leaders hope to sign a far-reaching, international agreement to bring down carbon emissions — the so-called “Kyoto 2” treaty. The summit is seen by many scientists, government and business leaders as a “make or break” opportunity to ensure global food and fresh water supplies far into the 21st century, avoid mass species extinctions / preserve plant and animal diversity, and avoid widespread geopolitical instability.

Andy Revkin at the NYTimes dot-earth blog had a good post summarizing the hairiness of the treaty negotiating work:

“As with any proposed contract, the devil is in the details, particularly when the {contract}{treaty}{agreement} involves {possible}{binding} {restrictions}{limits} on gases produced by every basic human activity, from driving to deforestation.”

He goes on to excerpt the proposed language on most major conflicts. A good read.

Surprisingly, the two countries thought to be the biggest stumbling blocks at Copenhagen — China and India — have, over the past month, announced a new willingness to join the treaty. Provided it has teeth.

Sydney Morning Herald: China pans US over climate demands
“A LEADING Chinese strategist on climate change has declared “there will be a deal at Copenhagen” to replace the Kyoto Protocol, but he has belittled the carbon-reduction proposals of the Obama Administration and the [Australian] Rudd Government as inadequate.”

Reuters: India says US domestic policy crucial to climate deal
“”Each one is hearing the other side so it is not a dialogue of the deaf in that sense, but the real dialogue where you start talking to each other. That will start now,” Patnaik told Reuters ahead of the June 1-12 meeting in Bonn. “I am very optimistic. If we can narrow it down to 10 percent differences, 90 percent agreement, it is a huge success.”

Two other wild cards at Copenhagen are Russia and the world business community.

The Russian Duma ratified a new “doctrine” on climate change just last week recognizing the “severe risks” of anthropogenic climate change and requiring “immediate” action.

Nature News: Russia makes major shift in climate policy

Similarly, a meeting of global business leaders in Copenhagen last week found some surprising statements coming from global CEOs: widespread support for a carbon tax and/or cap and trade programs.

AP: Global CEOs back greenhouse gas cuts, carbon caps

The question now leading most discussion — especially after the many amendments to the American Clean Energy and Security Act (aka The Waxman-Markey Climate Bill) — is whether the United States will do as President Obama stated back in November, 2008: lead on climate change. After the president’s lack of involvement with the bill, some are now wondering what are the administration’s real goals and plans?

Treehugger: Where Does Obama Stand on Climate Legislation?

Also: the big question of the week — will tomorrow night’s 2-hour ABC-TV event “Earth2100” be super cheesy or an interesting “new approach” to news and climate journalism? Tune in to watch and find out!

Other stories of note:

NYTimes: Plant-derived fuels could be certified for flights within a year, says Boeing exec
“In the past year and a half, commercial airlines have flown four successful test flights using a variety of biofuel-jet fuel blends. “We’ve proven the technical capability of biofuel as a drop-in replacement,” Glover said. “It meets all jet fuel requirements and then some.””

Climate Progress: Energy Secretary Chu: Paint roofs white to fight global warming
“Making roads and roofs a paler colour could have the equivalent effect of taking every car in the world off the road for 11 years, Chu said. It was a geo-engineering scheme that was “completely benign” and would keep buildings cooler and reduce energy use from air conditioning, as well as reflecting sunlight back away from the Earth.”

Solve Climate: Florida Renewable Energy Plan a Job and Economy Juggernaut
“In all, it found that implementing the full Climate Action Plan could add almost 150,000 new jobs and bring almost $40 billion in increased economic activity to the Sunshine state. “

Yale 360: Adaptation Emerges As Key Part Of Any Climate Change Plan
“”“My view is that we’ll be lucky if we can stop CO2 at 600 ppm,” says Wallace Broecker, a geoscientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. “There’s no way we’re going to stop at 450. Impossible. If we’re going to double CO2, we’d better prepare what we’re going to do about it.””

Nature: Hot times ahead for the Wild West
“An increase in the frequency of temperature extremes could affect crops, river flow and electricity consumption in the western states. For example, regions with the climatic conditions suitable for premium wine grape production might shift, shrink or even disappear with rising temperature extremes.”