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This week’s top story: COP-15 Roundup

The best sum-up of the recent “Road to Copenhagen” meeting in Bonn, Germany comes from Nature News:

Not much got done, but nobody really expected anything important to happen. The negotiating text ballooned as parties sought to insert and clarify countless disagreements and positions, but that’s the way it always works. Nobody gave an inch on their negotiating positions, but what kind of self-respecting negotiator would reveal the bottom line at this stage in the game?

As is often the case, the biggest deals are likely to be struck at the last minute.

In the weeks since, there has been movement — some of it forward, some side-to-side — and some major handwringing.

At this week’s US-led Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in Mexico City, US Climate Negotiator Todd Stern said that the 40% cuts in green house gas emissions by 2020 that developing (non-Annex 1) nations are calling for — most notably, China — are neither politically feasible nor necessary. Meanwhile, the medium term goal — 80% reductions by 2050 — are being favorably considered.

There was also wide discussion on the creation of a “Green Bank,” perhaps to be administered by the World Bank, that would govern developing-world carbon projects and sponsor global technology transfer.

AP: US nixes 40 percent cuts at climate change talks
Canadian Press: EU postpones decision on climate change funding for poor nations until October

Meanwhile, governments and other regional entities are beginning to make noises about contingency — what if the world fails to make a deal at Copenhagen? The Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate — which started as a Bush 2 end around the UNFCCC — may end up playing a significant role.

Reuters: Nations may form global CO2 market without U.N. deal
Reuters: Major economies consider halving world CO2

Other stories of note:

Reuters: Slim, Tata, others advise U.N.’s Ban on climate
“U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has formed an advisory group on climate change that includes Mexico’s Carlos Slim, India’s Ratan Tata, other business tycoons and executives from nongovernmental organizations, one member of the group said.”

WSJ: Veggie Power: Plant-based Jet Fuel Outperforms Oil-based Jet Fuel
“Boeing says the blends didn’t damage the equipment, and actually proved to have more oomph, or “greater energy content” than standard jet fuel – meaning potentially better fuel economy. The greenhouse gas benefit was evident as well: a blend that included jatropha and camelina can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 65% to 80% from standard petroleum-based fuel.”

Reuters: Arctic nations say no Cold War; military stirs
“Arctic nations are promising to avoid new “Cold War” scrambles linked to climate change, but military activity is stirring in a polar region where a thaw may allow oil and gas exploration or new shipping routes. “

Guardian: Here is the weather for 2080: floods, droughts and heat waves
“And now for the weather. The 2020s are looking warm and dry, with occasional heavy winter showers. The 2050s should be sunny and warm, with scattered deaths due to heatwaves across London and the south-east. And looking ahead to the 2080s, temperatures could reach 41C, so be sure to pack the suncream for your picnic. And watch out for those great white sharks!”

AP: Water supplies at risk from fires in dead forests
“Water supplies for 33 million people could be endangered if millions of acres of beetle-ravaged forests in the Rocky Mountains catch fire, a U.S. Forest Service official said Tuesday.”

WSJ: The Climate Change Climate Change
“Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. … The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.”

Riverside Press-Enterprise: Desert icon Joshua trees are vanishing, scientists say
“The ancient plants are dying in the park, the southern-most boundary of their limited growing region, scientists say. … Experts expect the Joshuas to vanish entirely from the southern half of the state within a century.”